UL Monroe hasn't won a game yet this season. South Alabama just put up 41 points in a shootout win. On paper, this one looks like it could get out of hand fast.

But "on paper" has been misleading more than once already this college football season, and there's enough going on beneath the surface here to make this matchup worth a real look before assuming it's a formality.

South Alabama's Offense Is Rolling

The Jaguars enter this one 2-1, and the headline number is hard to ignore: they're averaging 34.7 points a game, fresh off a 41-36 win over Ohio that was more track meet than defensive battle. South Alabama's offense has found its rhythm early, and a home crowd at Hancock Whitney Stadium in Mobile should only add to the energy.

UL Monroe Is Still Searching for Answers

UL Monroe, on the other hand, is 0-3 to start the year, and the defense has been the glaring issue — allowing a staggering 42.0 points per game so far. Their most recent outing was a 38-35 heartbreaker against Southeastern Louisiana, a game that shows the Warhawks can still move the ball (22.7 points a game isn't nothing) but simply can't get enough stops to close games out.

That's a dangerous combination heading into Mobile: a team that can score just enough to make things interesting, walking into a defense-optional environment against an opponent that's proven it can put up points in bunches.

History Isn't on UL Monroe's Side Either

The two sides met last November, with South Alabama taking that one 26-14. Nothing about this year's trajectory — South Alabama trending up, UL Monroe still winless — suggests this gap has closed.

So Is This Really a Lock?

Here's the thing: a winless team with a leaky defense traveling to face a surging offense sounds like an easy call. But UL Monroe's own offense has shown it can keep pace in shootouts, and "easy calls" in college football have a habit of getting more interesting than the records suggest — especially when both teams are inclined to score rather than grind things out.

The real question isn't just who wins, but by how much — and whether the total in this one tells a different story than the moneyline does.

We dug into both offenses, the defensive splits, and where the number actually sits, and landed on a pick with real conviction behind it — moneyline, expected value, and edge included.

👉 See the full breakdown and unlock the pick at thelongshotreport.com/predictions

This preview is based on information available before the game. Lineups, injuries, and odds can shift — always double-check the numbers before you bet. Sports predictions aren't guarantees, and betting carries risk.