Two Texas rivals, two teams that won a lot of games last season, and one shared problem: closing them out.

The Houston Rockets and San Antonio Spurs tip off their 2026-27 seasons on Friday night in Austin, and this one has more storylines than most opening-week games. A reigning Defensive Player of the Year on one side. A 38-year-old scoring legend on the other. And two teams that both let big leads slip away last season.

The Setup

The Rockets visit the Spurs on Friday, October 23, at Moody Center in Austin, with the game streaming on Amazon Prime Video. Tip-off is around 9:30 p.m. ET (8:30 p.m. local). The market has San Antonio as a favorite of around five and a half points, with the total sitting in the mid-220s.

San Antonio: A Team That Has Already Been There

Last season was a breakthrough year for the Spurs. Victor Wembanyama won his first Defensive Player of the Year award and finished third in MVP voting. San Antonio ended a six-year playoff drought and made it all the way to the championship round, playing 23 postseason games along the way before falling to the Knicks in five.

The core is back. The Spurs return their entire 10-man rotation, led by Wembanyama, Stephon Castle, Dylan Harper, and De'Aaron Fox, and they added veteran forward Tobias Harris and rookie Tarris Reed Jr. Many analysts have San Antonio as the team to beat in the West.

There are a couple of injury notes to watch. Harris is listed out with a calf injury, and Fox is questionable with a wrist issue. If Fox sits, it changes how San Antonio handles the ball.

Houston: Veteran Star Power

The Rockets have won 52 games in back-to-back seasons, and head coach Ime Udoka has said his team should "make some real noise." Kevin Durant, who recently turned 38, is still the engine of the offense. Fred VanVleet is back after missing all of last season with a knee injury, which should help Amen Thompson, who had to play out of position a year ago. Alperen Sengun and Steven Adams anchor the frontcourt, and Jabari Smith Jr. will be one of the options asked to deal with Wembanyama.

The Shared Weakness: Finishing Games

Here's what makes this matchup interesting. Both teams had a hard time closing games last year:

  • Houston led by double digits in 18 of its 30 regular-season losses.
  • San Antonio blew double-digit leads in all four of its losses to the Knicks in the Finals.

In a game between two teams that can build leads and give them away, the fourth quarter could matter more than the box score through three.

Questions That Could Decide It

  • Can anyone slow down Wembanyama? Houston has size, but few teams have a real answer for him.
  • Does Durant have an edge in a road opener? Veteran scoring tends to travel well, especially early in the season.
  • How much does the Fox injury matter? A Spurs team without its starting point guard changes the matchup.
  • Who closes? If this one is close late, execution under pressure will decide it.

What Makes This Game Tricky

A home favorite of around five points, a high-profile opener, two teams with real talent, and a few uncertain injury situations. That's the kind of setup where lines and rotations can shift quickly before tip-off.

We ran the numbers and landed on a pick we feel good about, complete with the moneyline, expected value, and edge that our subscribers see before the game.

👉 See the full breakdown and unlock the pick at thelongshotreport.com/predictions

This preview is based on information available before the game. Lineups, injuries, and odds can shift, so always double-check the numbers before you bet. Sports predictions aren't guarantees, and betting carries risk.