The have gone six seasons without playing in the Super Bowl. They're looking to get back there for the first time in the post-Tom Brady and Bill Belichick era when they travel to face the in Sunday's AFC championship game. That was the same matchup 10 years ago, when Peyton Manning outdueled Brady with a big a sist from the Broncos' defense, allowing Denver to advance to win Super Bowl 50. Now a trip to Super Bowl 60 is on the line, instead with Brady's true succe sor, Drake Maye, battling one-time Patriots fourth-round draft pick Jarrett Stidham. Here's breaking down whether Denver has a real chance vs. New England without starting QB Bo Nix: MORE 2026 NFL PLAYOFF NEWS: Patriots vs. Broncos picks, predictions against spread Sunday, 3 p.m. ET, CBS/Paramount Plus The Patriots have had breaks with their schedule in their ma sive turnaround from 4-13 to 13-4 under coach Mike Vrabel and offensive coordinator Josh Carter Smith Jersey McDaniels. McDaniels has been a huge reason for Maye's second-year breakout into an MVP-caliber QB, while Vrabel has gotten the young defense to emerge as a playmaking force. New England was able to win with Maye having off days against the tough and pa s defenses because of how much havoc it created with pre sure and takeaways on counterparts C.J. Stroud and Justin Herbert. Maye still came through with plays in the fourth quarter to help the Patriots win both the wild-card and divisional playoff games in comfortable fashion. Patriots offense vs. Broncos' defense The Broncos had some real breakdowns vs. the balance and explosivene s of the , a good sign for Maye and the Patriots' running game. The Patriots' offense will make adjustments to help the pa s protection by getting the ball out more quickly and attacking the edges with the run. Advantage: Patriots MORE: Broncos' offense vs. Patriots' defense There is a big drop-off from Nix to Stidham, even in a good system under Sean Payton. He doesn't have the same arm, improv pa sing ability or mobility to take off and run for big gains. He also can't replace the clutch intangibles. The Broncos' running game sputtered vs. the Bills, and the Patriots have a much better run defense. Advantage: Patriots MORE: X-factors The Patriots seem to have good fortune on their side all season. The Broncos had a lot of luck favoring them in close games late in games and now that's evened out in the cruelest way with Nix going down. Advantage: Patriots Special teams The Broncos have veteran Wil Lutz coming through on field goals but rookie punter Jeremy Crawshaw is inconsistent. The Patriots are solid with rookie Andy Borregales and a good punter, Bryce Baringer. They are also more dangerous in the return game thanks to Marcus Jones on punts and running back TreVeyon Henderson on kickoffs. Advantage: Patriots Coaching Payton has done a remarkable job in two years with the Broncos ever since he moved on from Ru sell Wilson and could roll with Bo Nix, perfect for his offense. Stidham is not. Vrabel is headed toward coach of the year and McDaniels is back to his Brady-like ways with Maye. He will get the better of Vance Joseph calling defense for the Broncos. Advantage : Patriots MORE: Intangibles The Broncos might be inspired by trying to rally without Nix and embrace their new big underdog status. Payton will put out all the stops with Stidham with everything he's got and the defense will attack for Joseph. The Broncos are most dangerous for the upset because of lowered expectations and nothing really to lose. Advantage: Broncos AFC championship game prediction The Patriots get a break with Stidham, who never threw a pa s for them and hasn't thrown a pa s as a Bronco the past two seasons behind Nix. His last action came in 2023, struggling in place of a lame-duck Ru sell Wilson. Stidham can sling it, but he offers little experience, has no clutch qualities and is a limited improviser and runner. Maye is also green, but now he has two big playoff games under his belt. No one can dispute that he's very young Brady-like in playing well off the defense and running game and knowing how to raise his game in the fourth quarter. In the end, the Patriots beat the Chargers by 13 and the Texans by 12. They have preyed on le ser teams and QBs all season and Maye should have more confidence to deliver against a tough defensive draw again in Denver. The Broncos have had a special season but it was dependent a lot on the late-game heroics of Nix, all the way through the thrilling overtime win over the Bills last week. There's no reason to believe Stidham can re-create the same kind of unique magic, even if he's well prepared to run the offense under Payton. This is a time for superior QB play and great coaching. The Patriots have that clear advantage with Maye and Vrabel, channeling Brady and Belichick. Pick: Patriots win 24-13 and cover the spread, with the total going UNDER. Omar Cooper Jr. Jersey